中际旭创 (300308) fell -3.15% on 2026-10-08: Moving with the market? After-close breakdown

Price & volume (60 sessions up to the event day)

Risk reference：Close ± 1.5 × ATR14 — a volatility yardstick, not an entry/exit signal

Historical analogue event study

In 2024-09-09~2026-10-08, 91 sessions moved down ≥ 3.0%

Baseline (all sessions): next-day up 54%, avg next +0.54%, avg 5-day +2.58% — no statistically distinguishable edge.

Attribution & commentary

Market mood

300308 led all China A-shares by turnover at CNY 21.29bn, the largest capital participation of the session; turnover value is not turnover rate (2.40% today).

Key data

Closed at CNY 783.00, -3.15% (daily limit ±20% for this board), turnover CNY 21.29bn, turnover rate 2.40%.

Cause check: Moving with the market

The ChiNext Index moved -3.15%; the stock's relative deviation of 0.00 points sits inside the ±1.5pp co-movement band, indicating a predominantly systematic (beta) driver.

Commentary

Session volume showed volume in line with its 20-day average (1.13x). Turnover value and volume measure participation, not direction.

Volume & volatility

Volume 1.13x the 20-day average; the move ranks at the 60th percentile of daily moves; ATR14 is 5.52% of price.

Historical analogues

91 sessions in 2024-09-09~2026-10-08 moved the same way by ≥ 3.0%. Next-day up rate 53%, average next day -0.03%, average 5-day +2.82%, 5-day continuation 40%, average adverse excursion -8.72%. 95% confidence interval for the next-day up rate: 43%–63%; unconditional baseline across all sessions in the window: 54% up, average next day +0.54%, average 5-day +2.58%. The baseline lies inside the interval: no statistically distinguishable edge versus an ordinary day. Stability: earlier half 44% vs later half 61%. Event statistics, not a strategy backtest or forecast.

Risk takeaway

Volume reflects dispersion, not direction; it should not be used in isolation as a directional input.

Falsification conditions

This reading treats the session as a single-day downside shock. It is invalidated if, within 5 sessions, price closes below 718.20 (1.5×ATR14 from the event close), which would indicate a trend rather than a shock; it is also invalidated if price closes above 847.80, which would indicate the shock has been fully absorbed.

Methodology & disclosures

Data: exchange end-of-day prices via Sina Finance, retrieved after the close; statistics use only sessions whose 5-day outcome was known on the event date (no look-ahead). Attribution compares the stock with its board index only; sector indices, filings and order-flow data are not included. Analogue statistics are event studies, not backtests: samples may overlap and are not tested out of sample. Generated automatically by rules; AI may only rephrase and any text whose numbers or volume wording disagree with the data is discarded. Simulated-practice research; not investment advice. Aegis Quant holds no position in the security.